Second Coming - Should we be preparing for a return of Trump? Gatekeepers March 2024

14 March 2024


Expert: Eric Shimp, Vice President, International Government Relations, Principal Global Investors, Facilitator: Rupert Phelps, Independent Consultant


  1. The return of Trump could signal significant shifts in global trade dynamics, particularly regarding relations with China
  2. Biden's economic performance garners praise, but concerns linger over inflation and household finances
  3. Swing states remain pivotal in electoral forecasts, with Stacey Abrams emerging as a key player
  4. Questions persist about Biden's health and Trump's legal challenges, influencing voter perceptions and campaign strategies
  5. Investment uncertainty looms under Trump 2.0, with implications for trade, tariffs, and global stability
  6. China's role and potential risks associated with Trump's policies are being closely scrutinised, impacting market dynamics


The discussion revolved around the potential implications of Donald Trump's return to power in the United States. With the upcoming election looming, the contrasting scenarios of a second Trump administration versus a continuation under President Biden were analysed. Key areas of focus included the economic outlook, geopolitical stability, trade policies, and global security concerns.

Participants then dissected the impact of Trump's presidency on financial markets, examining the consequences of his trade policies, particularly concerning China. The session delved into the significance of swing states and electoral forecasting, highlighting the critical role they play in determining the outcome of the election.

Concerns about Biden's health and Trump's legal troubles add layers of complexity, shaping perceptions of leadership viability and stability. The potential ramifications of Trump's foreign policy decisions, such as tariffs and defence strategies, and their impact are worrying.

Key Takeaways:

Security challenges in the Middle East and cybersecurity threats underscore the complexities of foreign policy

Legal troubles facing Trump, including indictments and potential impeachment, raise questions about political stability

Post-election scenarios point to continued polarisation and challenges for both parties in navigating a divided political landscape

The future trajectory of U.S. leadership and its global implications hinge on the outcome of the election and subsequent policy decisions