Invesco are about to publish a research article that considers ‘what would you put into a portfolio now for your grandchildren to benefit from?’
- Looking at temperature rise, we are benchmarking this on data from 1850-1900. Currently a 0.8% increase since then.
- The problem is it takes 100 years for there to be an impact of what we’ve pumped into the atmosphere. By 2050 = 1.1%, by 2100 = 2.6%, by 2150 = 3.5%. This is what is looking likely.
- Plenty of future temperature is already baked in. Weather related disasters are already up X3 since 1960.
- Sea level has risen 9” since early 1900s.
- Marine species have moved north and are going deeper.
- Look at the wildfires recently – these are up x10 since 1980.
- Evidence in our own day to day lives too, for example cutting the grass in November would previously have been unheard of.
- The average diet in the US is 2.5 tonnes of CO2 per year. A Vegan diet in the US requires 1.3 tonnes.
- Do people understand their carbon footprints?
- Do we think that shaming will start to come into things?
- Cobalt batteries for example are a huge contributor to climate change and we cannot avoid the unintended consequences.
- We expect a reduction in population growth which will in turn reduce global GDP to 2.4%.
- A 4 degree temperature increase will result in 0.5m sea level rise.
- This all has huge implications for migration flows.
Expert: Paul Jackson, Global Head Asset Allocation Research, Invesco
Facilitator: Giles Patterson, Director, Scorpio Partnership